Kelly backtest

Historical World Cup 1X2 strategy backtest · Model blend · Starting bankroll 100 · Simulated market margin 4.0%

Tournaments

World Cups

Sample matches

156

1X2

Best strategy

1/2 Kelly

Final 121.89

Best return

+21.9%

Rolling bankroll calculation

Strategy conclusion

Under the current simulated market assumptions, 1/2 Kelly performed best in the historical sample: 130 bets, 28 wins, and +7.6% bet ROI.

Positive return in sample

Final bankroll

121.89

Start 100

Max drawdown

33.5%

Risk reference

Hit rate

21.5%

28/130

For backtest year Y, training uses only matches from years before Y; same-year and future data are excluded.

For each match, only the single 1X2 outcome with the highest positive Full Kelly value is selected.

Strategy	Final	Return	Max drawdown	Bets	Hit rate	Total staked	Bet ROI
Kelly	103.08	+3.1%	61.0%	130 / 28	21.5%	499.75	+0.6%
1/2 Kelly	121.89	+21.9%	33.5%	130 / 28	21.5%	287.16	+7.6%
1/4 Kelly	116.24	+16.2%	18.3%	130 / 28	21.5%	144.49	+11.2%
1/10 Kelly	107.62	+7.6%	7.7%	130 / 28	21.5%	56.64	+13.5%

Year	Sample	Training matches	Kelly	1/2 Kelly	1/4 Kelly	1/10 Kelly
1998	3	0	0.0%100 · 0	0.0%100 · 0	0.0%100 · 0	0.0%100 · 0
2002	2	1,775	-2.4%97.6 · 1	-1.2%98.8 · 1	-0.6%99.4 · 1	-0.2%99.76 · 1
2006	3	3,728	-5.5%92.26 · 2	-2.8%96.08 · 2	-1.4%98.03 · 2	-0.5%99.21 · 2
2010	5	5,633	-8.9%84.05 · 4	-4.5%91.78 · 4	-2.3%95.82 · 4	-0.9%98.31 · 4
2014	15	7,547	-17.7%69.18 · 13	-6.6%85.76 · 13	-2.5%93.44 · 13	-0.8%97.56 · 13
2018	64	9,612	+20.4%83.31 · 54	+17.1%100.39 · 54	+10.2%102.94 · 54	+4.4%101.88 · 54
2022	64	11,975	+23.7%103.08 · 56	+21.4%121.89 · 56	+12.9%116.24 · 56	+5.6%107.62 · 56