How the calculation works
For each goal count k, the calculator uses P(k; λ) = e−λ λk / k!. It evaluates a 0–10 goal score matrix and normalizes the truncated probabilities.
18+ · 遵守当地法规 · 仅供参考
本站仅面向达到法定年龄的成年人。请只在体育博彩或预测市场合法的地区使用。模型胜率、赔率对比、Kelly 仓位、排名和回测仅为信息参考，不构成投注、投资、财务、法律或税务建议。
A Poisson football model converts home and away expected goals into a scoreline matrix, then derives home-win, draw, away-win, BTTS, and over/under probabilities. It is an educational model, not a forecast guarantee.
Informational and educational only — not betting, financial, legal, or investment advice. 18+; follow local laws.
Home win
48.59%
Draw
27.24%
Away win
24.17%
Over / under 2.5
40.40% / 59.60%
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 44.71%. Probabilities are normalized after truncating the score matrix at 10 goals.
For each goal count k, the calculator uses P(k; λ) = e−λ λk / k!. It evaluates a 0–10 goal score matrix and normalizes the truncated probabilities.
This simple independent-goals model does not know confirmed line-ups, tactical changes, referee decisions, or future match events. It should be interpreted as a transparent what-if calculation.
It models each team's goal count as a Poisson distribution and combines scoreline probabilities into match outcomes.
Expected-goal inputs can be wrong, score goals are not fully independent, and injuries, line-ups, weather, or red cards may not be represented.