18+ · 遵守当地法规 · 仅供参考
本站仅面向达到法定年龄的成年人。请只在体育博彩或预测市场合法的地区使用。模型胜率、赔率对比、Kelly 仓位、排名和回测仅为信息参考，不构成投注、投资、财务、法律或税务建议。
This page publishes available backtest context and calibration metrics from the running model service. Historical results describe the tested sample only; they do not predict future outcomes or guarantee returns.
Informational and educational only — not betting, financial, legal, or investment advice. 18+; follow local laws.
Matches in backtest
156
Tournaments tested
7
Model
blend
Best historical strategy
1/2 Kelly
回测年份 Y 只使用 year < Y 的比赛训练；不使用该年或未来年份训练数据。
每场只下注 Full Kelly 最高且为正边际的一个 1X2 方向。
历史赔率未存储；市场价格为 Elo 概率加水位的模拟代理，不是真实盘口。
Calibration sample
156
Evaluation tournaments
7
Log loss
elo: 1.054 · poisson: 1.063 · blend: 1.055
ROI is not repeated here unless the underlying backend returns it with a defined sample and assumptions. No metrics on this page should be read as a promise of accuracy or profit.