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Historical World Cup 1X2 strategy backtest · Model blend · Starting bankroll 100 · Simulated market margin 4.0%
Tournaments
7
World Cups
Sample matches
156
1X2
Best strategy
1/2 Kelly
Final 121.89
Best return
+21.9%
Rolling bankroll calculation
Under the current simulated market assumptions, 1/2 Kelly performed best in the historical sample: 130 bets, 28 wins, and +7.6% bet ROI.
Final bankroll
121.89
Start 100
Max drawdown
33.5%
Risk reference
Hit rate
21.5%
28/130
For backtest year Y, training uses only matches from years before Y; same-year and future data are excluded.
For each match, only the single 1X2 outcome with the highest positive Full Kelly value is selected.
Historical odds are not stored; market prices are a simulated proxy based on Elo probabilities plus an overround, not live odds.
Each match selects only one positive-edge direction. Winning bets settle at the corresponding simulated odds; losing bets lose the stake.
| Strategy | Final | Return | Max drawdown | Bets | Hit rate | Total staked | Bet ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 103.08 | +3.1% | 61.0% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 499.75 | +0.6% |
| 1/2 Kelly | 121.89 | +21.9% | 33.5% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 287.16 | +7.6% |
| 1/4 Kelly | 116.24 | +16.2% | 18.3% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 144.49 | +11.2% |
| 1/10 Kelly | 107.62 | +7.6% | 7.7% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 56.64 | +13.5% |
| Year | Sample | Training matches | Kelly | 1/2 Kelly | 1/4 Kelly | 1/10 Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1,775 | -2.4%97.6 · 1 | -1.2%98.8 · 1 | -0.6%99.4 · 1 | -0.2%99.76 · 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | 3,728 | -5.5%92.26 · 2 | -2.8%96.08 · 2 | -1.4%98.03 · 2 | -0.5%99.21 · 2 |
| 2010 | 5 | 5,633 | -8.9%84.05 · 4 | -4.5%91.78 · 4 | -2.3%95.82 · 4 | -0.9%98.31 · 4 |
| 2014 | 15 | 7,547 | -17.7%69.18 · 13 | -6.6%85.76 · 13 | -2.5%93.44 · 13 | -0.8%97.56 · 13 |
| 2018 | 64 | 9,612 | +20.4%83.31 · 54 | +17.1%100.39 · 54 | +10.2%102.94 · 54 | +4.4%101.88 · 54 |
| 2022 | 64 | 11,975 | +23.7%103.08 · 56 | +21.4%121.89 · 56 | +12.9%116.24 · 56 | +5.6%107.62 · 56 |
Local World Cup files before 2014 contain selected key-match samples rather than full schedules. This page evaluates staking and model direction; it is not betting advice.