18+ · Lois locales applicables · Référence uniquement
Ce site est réservé aux adultes ayant l'âge légal. Utilisez-le uniquement là où les paris sportifs ou les marchés de prédiction sont légaux. Les probabilités du modèle, comparaisons de cotes, tailles Kelly, classements et backtests sont des références informatives, pas des conseils de pari, d'investissement, financiers, juridiques ou fiscaux.
Historical World Cup 1X2 strategy backtest · Model blend · Starting bankroll 100 · Simulated market margin 4.0%
Tournaments
7
World Cups
Sample matches
156
1X2
Best strategy
1/2 Kelly
Final 121.89
Best return
+21.9%
Rolling bankroll calculation
Under the current simulated market assumptions, 1/2 Kelly performed best in the historical sample: 130 bets, 28 wins, and +7.6% bet ROI.
Final bankroll
121.89
Start 100
Max drawdown
33.5%
Risk reference
Hit rate
21.5%
28/130
For backtest year Y, training uses only matches from years before Y; same-year and future data are excluded.
For each match, only the single 1X2 outcome with the highest positive Full Kelly value is selected.
Historical odds are not stored; market prices are a simulated proxy based on Elo probabilities plus an overround, not live odds.
Each match selects only one positive-edge direction. Winning bets settle at the corresponding simulated odds; losing bets lose the stake.
| Strategy | Final | Return | Max drawdown | Bets | Hit rate | Total staked | Bet ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 103.08 | +3.1% | 61.0% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 499.75 | +0.6% |
| 1/2 Kelly | 121.89 | +21.9% | 33.5% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 287.16 | +7.6% |
| 1/4 Kelly | 116.24 | +16.2% | 18.3% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 144.49 | +11.2% |
| 1/10 Kelly | 107.62 | +7.6% | 7.7% | 130 / 28 | 21.5% | 56.64 | +13.5% |
| Year | Sample | Training matches | Kelly | 1/2 Kelly | 1/4 Kelly | 1/10 Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 | 0.0%100 · 0 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1,775 | -2.4%97.6 · 1 | -1.2%98.8 · 1 | -0.6%99.4 · 1 | -0.2%99.76 · 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | 3,728 | -5.5%92.26 · 2 | -2.8%96.08 · 2 | -1.4%98.03 · 2 | -0.5%99.21 · 2 |
| 2010 | 5 | 5,633 | -8.9%84.05 · 4 | -4.5%91.78 · 4 | -2.3%95.82 · 4 | -0.9%98.31 · 4 |
| 2014 | 15 | 7,547 | -17.7%69.18 · 13 | -6.6%85.76 · 13 | -2.5%93.44 · 13 | -0.8%97.56 · 13 |
| 2018 | 64 | 9,612 | +20.4%83.31 · 54 | +17.1%100.39 · 54 | +10.2%102.94 · 54 | +4.4%101.88 · 54 |
| 2022 | 64 | 11,975 | +23.7%103.08 · 56 | +21.4%121.89 · 56 | +12.9%116.24 · 56 | +5.6%107.62 · 56 |
Local World Cup files before 2014 contain selected key-match samples rather than full schedules. This page evaluates staking and model direction; it is not betting advice.