18+ · Cumple las leyes locales · Solo referencia
Este sitio es solo para adultos con edad legal. Úsalo únicamente donde las apuestas deportivas o los mercados de predicción sean legales. Las probabilidades del modelo, comparación de cuotas, tamaños Kelly, rankings y backtests son referencias informativas, no asesoramiento de apuestas, inversión, finanzas, legal ni fiscal.
This page publishes available backtest context and calibration metrics from the running model service. Historical results describe the tested sample only; they do not predict future outcomes or guarantee returns.
Informational and educational only — not betting, financial, legal, or investment advice. 18+; follow local laws.
Matches in backtest
156
Tournaments tested
7
Model
blend
Best historical strategy
1/2 Kelly
For backtest year Y, training uses only matches from years before Y; same-year and future data are excluded.
For each match, only the single 1X2 outcome with the highest positive Full Kelly value is selected.
Historical odds are not stored; market prices are a simulated proxy based on Elo probabilities plus an overround, not live odds.
Calibration sample
156
Evaluation tournaments
7
Log loss
elo: 1.054 · poisson: 1.063 · blend: 1.055
ROI is not repeated here unless the underlying backend returns it with a defined sample and assumptions. No metrics on this page should be read as a promise of accuracy or profit.