How the calculation works
For each goal count k, the calculator uses P(k; λ) = e−λ λk / k!. It evaluates a 0–10 goal score matrix and normalizes the truncated probabilities.
18+ · Local laws apply · Reference only
This site is for adults of legal age only. Use it only where sports betting or prediction markets are legal. Model probabilities, odds comparisons, Kelly sizing, rankings, and backtests are informational references, not betting, investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
A Poisson football model converts home and away expected goals into a scoreline matrix, then derives home-win, draw, away-win, BTTS, and over/under probabilities. It is an educational model, not a forecast guarantee.
Informational and educational only — not betting, financial, legal, or investment advice. 18+; follow local laws.
Home win
48.59%
Draw
27.24%
Away win
24.17%
Over / under 2.5
40.40% / 59.60%
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 44.71%. Probabilities are normalized after truncating the score matrix at 10 goals.
For each goal count k, the calculator uses P(k; λ) = e−λ λk / k!. It evaluates a 0–10 goal score matrix and normalizes the truncated probabilities.
This simple independent-goals model does not know confirmed line-ups, tactical changes, referee decisions, or future match events. It should be interpreted as a transparent what-if calculation.
It models each team's goal count as a Poisson distribution and combines scoreline probabilities into match outcomes.
Expected-goal inputs can be wrong, score goals are not fully independent, and injuries, line-ups, weather, or red cards may not be represented.